Market Watch (Şeker Yatırım)

Market Watch - Thursday, February 6, 2025

Outlook:
The BIST100 Index started Wednesday flat, then followed a negative trend amid rising sales during the day, closing at 9,719.81, down 0.89%. The Industrial Index lost 0.93% and the Banking Index fell 1.54%. While the outlook for the BIST remains weak, news that an indictment had been prepared against Istanbul Metropolitan Municipality President Ekrem İmamoglu seeking his imprisonment was another factor to raise selling pressure. We expect related news and statements to be followed closely. Despite the weak balance sheets of technology stocks in global markets, the U.S. stock markets continued their rise yesterday, and European stock markets also closed the day positively. While the positive trend has spread to Asian stock markets this morning, the U.S. futures and German DAX futures continue their positive trajectory. The Bank of England meeting will be followed today. The bank is expected to reduce the interest rate by a further 25 bps. The interest rate decision and President Bailey's statements will be followed closely. We also think that markets will continue to closely follow developments regarding trade wars. The VIOP30 Index completed the evening session up 0.32%. Locally, we expect the Benchmark Index to start Thursday flat and continue to fluctuate later in the day if reaction purchases remain weak. SUPPORT: 9,650 - 9,550 RESISTANCE: 9,850 - 9,950.
Money Market:
The Lira was positive yesterday, gaining 0.09% against the USD to close at 35.8980. The currency also depreciated by 0.11% against a basket of $0.50 and €0.50. Meanwhile, the local fixed income markets were negative. The ten-year benchmark bond yield fluctuated between a range of 27.59%-27.92%, closing the day at 27.86%, up 27 bps from the previous close.
Sector News:
According to Turkish White Good Manufacturers Association data, among the six main products (Refrigerator, Washing Machine, Dish Washer, Oven, Deep Freeze, and Dryer) production shrank by 4%, imports by 11% and domestic sales by 1% YoY in December. Imports rose 4% yearly.
For 2024 overall, domestic demand rose 7% YoY. In the same term, exports shrank by 3% YoY. Thus, total sales remained flat yearly in the first eleven months of 2024. In the same term production decreased 2% YoY.
While the negative effects of tight monetary policy continue in domestic and export demand, we believe this situation will continue for a while longer. We expect normalization in 2025 due to the demand brought forward in 2024, especially in the domestic market. Shrinking purchasing power, tight monetary policy and installment restrictions also continue to pose risks for the demand outlook. On the export side, the 10% contraction in demand in 2023 was followed by 11% in 2024. We believe that improved macroeconomic conditions are a must, especially in the main export market of Europe. On the other hand, we expect the decline to continue at a slower pace due to the low base effect.
We evaluate the latest data as NEGATIVE for sector stocks ARCLK, VESTL and VESBE.
Company News:
VakifBank (VAKBN.TI; MP) is expected to announce its 4Q24 earnings results today after the market close. We expect the highest earnings growth (+43% QoQ) and best-in-class margin improvement for VakifBank among our coverage banks, with the support of a strong recovery in TL loan-deposit spreads. Our 4Q24 net income estimate is TRY11,457mn, up 43% QoQ and 14% YoY, with a quarterly ROAE of 22%. The Research Turkey market consensus is TRY12,113mn (Positive).




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