Market Watch (Şeker Yatırım)

Market Watch - Monday, February 3, 2025
Outlook:
The BIST100 Index started Friday on a positive trend, then followed a fluctuating course with a focus on sales throughout the day, closing at 10,004.38, down 0.77%. While the Industrial Index decreased by 0.88%, the Banking Index diverged negatively, down 2.02%. On a weekly basis the BIST100 decreased by 0.99%, the Industrial Index lost 2.91%, and the Banking Index fell 2.66%. Profit sales were observed across the BIST last week. Following Moody's, Fitch Ratings' has not changed Turkey's rating and outlook, which is expected to have a negative, albeit limited, impact on the market. On the other hand, the 4Q24 financials period commenced last week, led by the banks, and we expect divergences to continue during the announcement season. In global markets, President Trump's decision to impose new tariffs on Canada, Mexico and China as of Tuesday suppressed risk appetite and caused the U.S. stock markets to end the day with declines. This morning, the U.S. futures and German DAX futures are on the decline. Markets in China are closed today for New Year celebrations, and open Asian stock markets are priced negatively. Markets will follow Eurozone inflation data today. On the domestic macroeconomic data agenda, inflation data for January is out today. The market expectation is that CPI will rise by 4.33% monthly and 41.16% annually in January. We expect monthly inflation of 4.15% and annual inflation of 41%. The VIOP30 Index ended the evening session down 0.16%. Locally, we expect the Benchmark Index to start Monday negatively and follow a fluctuating course thereafter. SUPPORT: 9,900 - 9,800 RESISTANCE: 10,150 - 10,250.
Money Market:
The Lira was negative on Friday, weakening 0.22% against the USD to close at 35.8552. The currency also appreciated by 0.03% against a basket of $0.50 and €0.50. Meanwhile, the local fixed income markets were positive. The ten-year benchmark bond yield fluctuated between a range of 26.68%-26.93%, closing the day at 26.70%, down 21 bps from the previous close.
Headlines:
Inflation data for January will be released in Turkey today. Market expectations are that CPI will increase by 4.33% mom and 41.16% YoY in January. As Seker Invest, we expect 4.15% mom and 41% YoY inflation in January. Our detailed analysis will be published during the day.
Sector News:
*** With the Presidential Decree published in the Official Gazette, the withholding tax rate for deposits and investment funds has been increased. The withholding rate for investment funds has been increased to 15% from 10%. As of today, the withholding rates for the term deposits/participation accounts opened and renewed as of today will be applied at 15% (Previous: 10%) for up to 6 months maturity (including 6 months), 12% (Previous: 7.5%) for up to 1 year maturity (including 1 year), and 10% (Previous: 5%) for accounts with more than 1 year maturity. The withholding rate for currency protected deposits has also been increased. In addition, a general rate has been implemented for certain securities income. The withholding rate to be applied to securities will be 15% for less than 1 year maturity and 10% for others.
Company News:
In 4Q24, Arcelik's (ARCLK.TI; OP) operating expenses remained high due to increased personnel, marketing, and sales costs following the European and MENA agreements with Whirlpool, while an operating profit of TRY 490mn was recorded. Upon completion of closing transactions related to the consolidation of Whirlpool operations, a negative goodwill of TRY 17,023mn was recognized as operating income. Additionally, restructuring expenses of TRY 10,875mn were recorded following the initiation of the restructuring process after the Whirlpool acquisition. Including net financial expenses of TRY 7,590mn and monetary gains of TRY 7,093mn, the company achieved a net profit of TRY 7,009mn this quarter, above the market's expectation of a TRY 1,306mn loss and above our TRY 5,453mn estimate, including the IAS-29 impact.
The company's net sales revenue, including the IAS-29 impact, increased by 19% YoY in 4Q24, reaching TRY 108,290mn-above our expectation of TRY 101,100mn but below the market's estimate of TRY 110,865mn. The inorganic growth in Europe, driven by the Whirlpool acquisition, played a key role in the annual sales revenue increase (Europe's share in total sales rose from 42% to 56%). In 4Q24, domestic sales contracted by a real 5.2% in TRY terms, while international sales grew by 32.1%. The decline in domestic demand aligns with our expectations, reflecting the impact of tight monetary policy.
Despite stronger-than-expected sales revenue, higher-than-expected costs and operational expenses caused EBITDA to fall short at TRY 4,796mn, compared to our forecast of TRY 6,556mn and the market consensus of TRY 5,494mn. The EBITDA margin stood at 4.4% (4Q23: 5.8%).
2024 Results: In 2024, revenues increased by 15% year-on-year to TRY 428,548mn. Despite flat domestic sales revenue and the negative impact of a relatively weak EUR/USD exchange rate, inorganic growth was supported by the inclusion of European and MENA acquisitions in the financials starting from 2Q24. Consequently, the company's expectations of stable real growth in the domestic market and approximately 50%+ growth in international revenues in FX terms were met. For the full year 2024, EBITDA amounted to TRY 22,297mn, with an EBITDA margin of 5.2%, falling short of the company's 5.8%-6.0% guidance.
2025 Expectations: In 2025, the company anticipates stable real growth in the domestic market and approximately 15%+ growth in international revenues in FX terms. The adjusted EBITDA margin is expected to improve to 6.5%, while capital expenditures of approximately EUR 300mn are planned.
We expect the first half of 2025 to be in line with 2024, while in the second half, we anticipate a recovery in both the domestic and export markets, especially in Europe, the main market, after interest rate cuts. We expect Arcelik's performance to move in parallel with sectoral dynamics. Additionally, with the closure of idle operations related to Whirlpool, we expect cost management to become more effective and margins to gradually improve. As a result, we expect improvements in both sales revenue and operational profitability. In summary, we may see better results for Arcelik in the second half of 2025.
Vakifbank (VAKBN.TI; MP) has finalized its Diversified Payment Rights (DPR) securitization transaction of USD700mn with a total maturity of 10 years, with 4 years of grace period. This transaction, which is aimed at institutional investors for the first time in many years, is the bank's longest-term securitization transaction in recent years.



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