Market Watch (Şeker Yatırım)

Market Watch - Monday, January 20, 2025

Outlook:
The BIST100 Index started Friday on a positive trend which it continued throughout the day. The Benchmark Index closed at 9,977.94, up 1.13%. While the Industrial Index lost 0.04% the Banking Index gained 2.44%. On a weekly basis, the BIST100 Index rose 0.68%; the Industrial Index lost 0.43%, and the Banking Index diverged positively, up 2.11%. The positive outlook among global markets continued its welcome impact on the BIST on Friday. Expectations that the rise in global risk appetite and continuation of current economic policies would increase foreign investor interest in Turkey also supported the BIST, with trading led by banking stocks. Finally, the CBRT announced that the 6 and 12 month maturity account opening and renewal processes in KKM accounts would be terminated as of January 20, 2025, while the CBRT shortened the opening and renewal periods for exchange rate protected deposits. We maintain our view that the policies implemented will positively affect the BIST in the medium-long term, and the CBRT is expected to make a further 250 bps interest rate cut this week. We expect interest rate cuts to initially continue to favor banks and financial sector stocks. On the global front, the U.S. and European stock markets continued their rise on Friday. On a weekly basis, developed market bourses gained an average of 3% as the moderate U.S. inflation data strengthened risk appetite. This morning, U.S. futures are mixed, while German DAX futures are following a positive trend. In Asia, most stock markets are on the rise, accompanied by increasing expectations that prospective trade wars will not be as harsh as previously thought following the Trump-Xi phone call. We expect markets to remain guided by data. The VIOP30 Index completed the evening session up 0.07%. Locally, we expect the Benchmark Index to start Monday positively and follow a fluctuating course thereafter. SUPPORT: 9,850 - 9,750 RESISTANCE: 10,150 - 10,250.
Money Market:
The Lira was negative on Friday, weakening 0.33% against the USD to close at 35.5590. The currency also depreciated by 0.15% against a basket of $0.50 and €0.50. Meanwhile, the local fixed income markets were positive. The ten-year benchmark bond was traded within a range of 27.87%-28.01%, ending the day at a low of 27.87%, 26 bps below its previous closing.
Company News:
For Isbank (ISCTR.TI; OP) our 4Q24 net income estimate is TRY6,660mn. We model a 20% quarterly earnings growth and 67% YoY earnings decline, and a quarterly ROAE of 9%. The bank stands out with a best-in-class recovery in NII amid lower repo funding volumes. NIM (adjusted) is to improve by a solid 160bps QoQ to positive territory.
A 6% increase in TRY loans, a stable course in FX loans, a 7% rise in TRY deposits, 4% decline in FX deposits, and decelerated fee income growth (+7% QoQ) are other major highlights of the quarter.
The trading gain is set to normalize, and the bank should post a trading loss of TRY400mn in 4Q24, vs. a strong TRY5.2bn trading gain in 3Q24.
The bank stands out with an eye-catching rebound in NII boosted by lower repo funding volumes. We model a stable trend in CPI linker revenues as the bank uses a different valuation method for them. Swap funding costs should rise by 3% QoQ to TRY7bn. NIM (adjusted) is to widen strongly by 160bps QoQ and to be in positive territory.
On the asset quality side, we expect cumulative CoR (net) to reach 110bps. Solid TRY10bn subsidiary income lifts the bottom line (Positive).
4Q24 financials announcement date: February 1st week.
Among the private banks we follow, we expect TSKB (TSKB.TI; OP) to post the only earnings growth on both a QoQ and annual basis. Our 4Q24 net income expectation is TRY3,019mn, indicating 15% and 50% quarterly and annual increases, and a 39% quarterly ROAE, above its peers. The bank stands out positively with its strong subsidiary income and lower loan provisions. Contrary to the trend seen in other banks, despite the 7% quarterly decline in fee and commission income, the 30bps quarterly widening in swap-adjusted NIM is positive. The trading loss should soar by 128% quarterly to TRY500mn on higher swap funding volumes. Solid TRY700mn subsidiary income should boost EBT while the effective tax rate is to reach 28% (Positive).
4Q24 financials announcement date: February 3-4, 2025
Vakifbank (VAKBN.TI; MP) bought back 48,394 of its own shares at an average price of TRY 25.32 on January 17, 2025, regarding variable payments to special employees within the scope of the "Guide on Good Remuneration Practices in Banks" published by the BRSA.



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                               Yasal Uyarı
 
  Burada yer alan yatırım bilgi, yorum ve tavsiyeler yatırım danışmanlığı kapsamında değildir.Yatırım danışmanlığı hizmeti ; aracı kurumlar, portföy yönetim şirketleri, mevduat kabul etmeyen bankalar ile müşteri arasında imzalanacak yatırım danışmanlığı sözleşmesi çerçevesinde sunulmaktadır.Burada yer alan yorum ve tavsiyeler, yorum ve tavsiyede bulunanların kişisel görüşlerine dayanmaktadır.Bu görüşler mali durumunuz ile risk ve getiri tercihlerinize uygun olmayabılır.Bu nedenle, sadece burada yer alan bilgilere dayanılarak yatırım kararı verilmesi beklentilerinize uygun sonuçlar doğurmayabilir.