Market Watch (Şeker Yatırım)

Market Watch - Friday, December 6, 2024

Outlook:
The BIST100 Index started Thursday on a positive trend, and followed a volatile course throughout the day, closing at 9,935.96, up 0.5%. The Industrial Index rose by 0.61% and the Banking Index gained 0.66%. The BRSA announced yesterday that banks, as well as financial leasing, factoring, financing, savings financing, and asset management companies, will not implement inflation accounting in 2025. Meanwhile, the CMB announced that the short-selling ban on companies listed in the BIST 50 will be lifted as of January 2, 2025. We believe that the BIST, which has been on an uptrend recently due to expectations that the CBRT may begin rate cuts, will maintain its positive momentum following these announcements. On the global front, the U.S. stock markets closed the day lower, while European markets ended with gains. Today, the focus will be on the U.S. non-farm payrolls and unemployment rate data. Ahead of this release, the U.S. futures and DAX futures are trading negatively this morning, with downtrends also dominating Asian markets. In the evening session the VIOP30 Index saw a 1.2% increase. Locally, we expect the Benchmark Index to start Friday on a positive trend, and if profit-taking during the session is absorbed, it is likely to maintain its positive trajectory. SUPPORT: 9,850 - 9,750 RESISTANCE: 10,000 - 10,200.
Money Market:
The Lira was positive yesterday, gaining 0.15% against the USD to close at 34.6974. The currency also depreciated by 0.16% against a basket of $0.50 and €0.50. Meanwhile, the local fixed income markets were negative. The ten-year benchmark bond was traded within a range of 29.79%-29.98%, ending the day at a low of 29.79%, 27 bps above its previous closing.
Sector News:
*** BRSA has officially announced its long-waited decision that, banks, leasing, factoring, financing, savings financing and asset management companies will not apply inflation accounting in 2025. According to BRSA data, Turkish banking sector 10M net income rose 6.1% YoY to TRY515.6bn in October, while ROAE was 26.3% (Positive).
*** BRSA Weekly: KKM fell to a record low of USD34.9bn. According to the weekly BRSA data of November 29, 2024, the sector's FX deposits (in $ terms) fell by USD625mn and 0.3% weekly to USD191.3bn. The continuous outflow over the past 6 weeks is USD5.2bn and 2.7%. KKM fell to a record low of USD34.9 billion.
State deposit banks' FX deposits fell 1.7% WoW, while there was a 0.1% and 1.1% rise in foreign and private deposit banks, respectively. FX deposits rose by 20 bps in total deposits to 36.1%.
Individual FX deposits (in $ terms) fell by 0.7% on a weekly basis. There was a 0.3% and 2.0% growth in commercial institutions and official institutions FX deposits.
KKM fall to record low of USD34.9 billion. The weekly exit rate in KKM is stable at 2.1%. The total amount fell by TRY25.8 billion to TRY1.20 trillion. Its share in TL deposits fell by 10 bps to 10.3%. In dollar terms, it declined by 2.5% weekly to a record low of USD34.9 billion. The share of KKM deposits in FX deposits fell by 40 bps weekly to 18.3%.
Sharp recovery in loan growth. The 13W moving average (FX adj.) total lending growth accelerated by a visible 400 bps weekly to 28.2% due to the sharp recovery in corporate credit card growth. This is the highest weekly increase rate since the week of August 2.
Total consumer loan growth rose by 200 bps WoW to 36.6%. The growth of individual and commercial credit cards also accelerated by 150 and 680 basis points WoW to 46.4% and 29.2%, respectively. In commercial installment loans, growth recovered by 290 basis points to 58.3%.
TL deposits fell 0.9% WoW. TL deposits decreased by 0.9% on a weekly basis to TRY111 billion.
Slight decline in the sector's FX long position, private deposit banks' short position rises WoW. The sector's FX long position fell 0.8% on a weekly basis to USD1,980 million. The state deposit banks' FX long position rose by 7% weekly to USD1,708 million. In foreign deposit banks it fell by 3% to USD502 million. The private deposit banks' short position rose to USD83 million from USD3 million dollars the previous week.
The sector's FX net general position/legal equity ratio is flat at 2.1%. On a segment basis, this ratio is at 6.0% and 2.1% in state and foreign deposit banks, and -0.3% in private deposit banks.
Company News:
Within the scope of the share buyback program, Bim (BIMAS.TI; OP) has announced that 100,000 shares were bought back on 05 December 2024 whereby BIMAS shares owned by the Company have reached 11,607,383 units (1.9116% of total share capital) (Positive).
Migros (MGROS.TI; OP) has announced that in November, 31 new stores (13 Migros, 11 Migros Jet, 5 Macrocenter and 2 Mion cosmetic stores) were opened. The total store number is 3,590 as of 30 November 2024.
Tepe İnşaat has reported that on 05/12/2024, a sales transaction with a total nominal amount of TL 200,000 was carried out regarding TAV Airports Holding (TAVHL.TI; OP) shares within a price range of TL 280.00 - 283.50. With this transaction, Tepe İnşaat's shares/voting rights in TAV capital reached 4.15% as of 05/12/2024.



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